Original post at 1st April 2021 https://tradersworld.com/issue80.pdf
Original post at 1st January 2021 https://tradersworld.com/issue79.pdf
Using our DeLorean indicator, we forecasted since beginning 2020 that Trump would win Presidential elections and that a crisis would unfold after November 3rd. Well, it was correct, Trump had a landslide win in the morning of the 4th, but suddenly counting was stopped in 7 states and magically they kept on finding many votes for Biden and few for Trump, which took ages, but in the end Biden was ahead. However, he won only 16% of all counties and 80 million votes, much , much more then Obama. When writing this article there is tons of evidence of massive fraud and still it could well be the case that Biden will win. Because democrat states do not want to investigate the ballots in full and judges as well as supreme court deny mostly the evidence and fraud. Did you not know about the fraud? No surprise since Big media does not cover anything about fraud and evidence whatsoever. Nevertheless Trump can become the next president, since on January 6th our indicator is deep RED, right on time with the day that Congress will convene about choosing the president. Let’s see how this will play out.
How does our model researches the future?
Firstly we calculate the energy of our time patterns at work for history and future. Next we research which time patterns in history had what effect on markets, economy or society. History repeats itself in the future, doesn’t it?
We maintain a pure quantitative approach meaning that we use price data, which is an excellent, undisputed measurement of value (and direction of markets) as well as using a fully quantitative Time database. These two databases combined are used to research history to map the future.
First work was to study and program chart price patterns and fractals in software ELWAVE (I was the expert and original owner) that still sells worldwide.
Next we devised
an undisputed quantitative measurement/model for direction in markets or
society using “time energy”. Energy should be thought of as physics formula,
Einstein related definitions of energy, which are fractals as well.
Undisputed means it is a pure quantitative approach and its outcome is mathematical and does not change because of any interpretation. Also calculating the time patterns is fully independent from the price database.
Firstly longer term TIME patterns have been defined and researched how they correlated with the price data.
Empirically we determined what effect the TIME patterns have on the markets.
The large time patterns should be thought of as blue print, the way it looks and travels in time during a period from 2 to 8 years.
For example “3
waves up” in the large time pattern shows bull markets everywhere in history and the future. The Signature
of 3 TOPS and 5 time waves (3 up and 2 down), is a relatively simple and very
Therefore they did show up and keep showing up in the future as well, which in the meantime has become history. Obviously during time periods with “3 waves up” society experienced on average prosperity and harmony (our very first baffling discovery).
3 examples of recent 3 waves time patterns in the 1980s and 90s. Imagine knowing in 1982 that these bull market patterns were coming up and would continue after the crash in 1987? Living in 2020, when will these bull time waves come again?
History repeats itself. Every period that has the same comparable Time patterns, witnesses more or less the same parallel events and is a parallel universe translated to modern times. Yes history repeats itself in the future.
NOW you need to know when these bull market patterns will show up again!
Bull or Bear in 2021?
Contrarily, “2 or 3 waves down” shows a decline or worse in the markets and smaller crisis in society, which on average will be visible in a 2 to 3 year period. Smaller time patterns in specific sequences do build larger patterns and have a larger range of sometimes 5-8 years instead of 1-2 years for the smaller time patterns.
The time patterns of the past have been extensively researched and correlated with all history available for which our time database, which starts from 1600, provides calculations, which are shown as time pattern indicators in order to see how the Market stock indices performed when bull or bear patterns are at work.
have no precise charts before 1900, but a yearly/quarterly chart from around
1700 is available. Periods where we found a significant match between time
(identical) patterns, should result in a comparable society, economy and market
circumstances and events. The same for the TIME we live in now as well as the
future. Since we have calculated the time patterns of the future we can see to
which period in the past they compare. Thus we forecast what to expect, as we
successfully did for the outlook 2020.
Large DeLorean time patterns at work until 2021
For the year 2021 we will discuss what patterns there are, small and
large, and what they forecast. In this case from 2018 until beginning 2022 have
been researched. Please keep in mind that the pattern could extend beyond 2022
and mostly does so. To really know if Bull or Bear follows a difficult period
of 2021 is essential for strategic portfolios and asset allocation.
We have Revolution time patterns with historically big impact or we have minor crises or bull markets. Depending on the outcome of time patterns, you will know how to prepare. Is it a bull market, you cannot imagine this to happen in the middle of a crisis. Now on an all-time high, you cannot imagine a bear market to develop. Our analysis will help you to believe what is coming. Our outlook may be unthinkable and farfetched, but we assure you it is not. However, not necessarily the worst case will happen.
Main topics will be:
– Financial markets, Dow Jones
With regard to society and economy the large time pattern will be most relevant, the shorter trends in markets will be mainly determined by DeLorean indicator. Time patterns as analyzed in DeLorean Indicator are required for timing since they trigger and confirm the larger patterns.
The TIME pattern that is at work NOW is a WAR pattern as we said before. Even a lot more information is available, which you can read in our DeLorean OUTLOOK 2021. Is it worse like a revolutionary pattern or will the constitutional crisis be over real soon? There is a worst outcome, where a coup takes place and/or a new ideology (tries) to take over. If the power shifts, normally a period of freedom stops. If it succeeds it will take many years to turn it back. Alternatively it is a war pattern that highly correlates with civil war or World war II. If you order the DeLorean outlook 2021, we will tell you more.
When war patterns happen to a banana republic like Venezuela, it does not shift the world. But when it happens to the most powerful countries in the world, its impact can be huge. So we have to pay attention to what is happening now.
Should a strong “3 waves” bull market and harmony pattern be coming this year or next, then it would be clear that it will be fine in the end.
2021 time patterns that could rule for around 2 to 5 years give you an image of
what to expect. For example if you see a forest or a river, you know it’s
meaning (health, direction) without the necessity to inspect every tree or turn
in the river. The same goes for DeLorean pattern charts, you look at the
picture to see how healthy it is, but not every up and down move in the
patterns is a high or low in the market. It is a general trend mostly of
society and humans. DeLorean indicator gives detail for more precise market predictions,
while Long term time patterns show trends in economy and society. Putting
this indicator and Long term patterns together, shows bull and bear market
years before they happen.
The larger pattern is more important and consists of multiple smaller patterns in an order which is different for every period. In this case the pattern starts at around mid In Red IN THE CHART we have inserted assassinations of US presidents, which quite often is predicted by a smaller time pattern as a part of the War pattern. The question is to what patterns it relates in the past and if it is a mild war pattern or worse.
2018 and will be shown until 2021, in our outlook 2021. Of course it does not finish there.
The most important thing is that the pattern 2018-2021 is a WAR pattern, see below, as already mentioned this year, starting later in 2020. Because it has and will have a big impact on society, economy and markets we already mentioned its effects in an early stage. This was possible because we already had the analysis prepared for the years to come.
The WAR pattern continues in the beginning of 2021 and coincided with the constitutional crisis and violence that we expected for 2020. In view of the Dow being at an all-time high and the severity of the looming crisis of which we only see the tip of the iceberg, we expect the Dow to enter a possibly big correction. How far it will go, we will assess later on when we compare it to historic times when lookalike patterns happened. If history repeats, chances are that markets will move in the same direction. One positive thing to mention is that governments or dictatorships normally take full control of society as well as economy. In these environments stock indices tend to be controlled as well and a sort of war economy and budget explosions take over. At first governments inject a lot of money to keep economy afloat, but later on it is reduced equally. Sounds familiar, right?
Consequently indices tend to decline around 25% or so in comparable periods. However if complete chaos breaks loose, it is another story.
Above the pattern from 2018 to end of 2021, 2021 is covered but revealed in our outlook. This can be divided in 3 sections of smaller time patterns. But taken all together makes it (part of) bigger pattern. The 1st section is from half 2018 until March 2020. The 2nd section is until March 2012. The 3rd section is a smaller recovery or bottoming of economy, which forecasted a severe recession in 2020.
When studying the lookalike history, we found the answer how bad the war pattern could get. Will it be a worse PATTERN or not? That would signal to prepare for the worst case, which not necessary fully unfolds. But for now we tell you about the War pattern.
Every WAR is a sort of invasion of the enemy with fraud, violence, propaganda and a new ideology causing mass psychosis and hysteria. All translating in what could become a bad period. We mention 1860 the American Civil War, and 1938 as best correlations to nowadays. Please note that war patterns coincided with depression but also recovery in markets before the end of the war. DeLorean indicators help to determine WHEN and IF markets start to rise long before the end of the war.
Implications and parallels of Large time pattern-1938-1860
These patterns are highly correlated. Therefore we can expect parallel events happen now as happened in the past, Just to mention some important events. In this period there appeared more correlated patterns in a period of 2 decades. All these crises unfolded globally and during all of them first a grab for power then restrictions on freedom, wars, starvation and depressed economies as well as centralized power, where the people suffered. Either starvation, depression or financial collapse are prevalent during hard times.
– civil war between northern and southern states of the US
– several southern states seceded from the US
– war and revolution which did not succeed in the end
– new technology and next stage of industrial revolution
– new infrastructure, beginning of railroads
– native indian population defeated (by immigrants)
– martial law invoked by Lincoln, media companies closed, opposition imprisoned.
– first fraud with mail in ballots of soldiers, financial reset
– In Europe Prussia invasion united German states after several wars
– slaves were freed beginning with declaration of independence
– Lincoln assassinated
– hyperinflation, financial reset
– global war, nazi invasion in Europe, Japan invasion in Asia, Russia invasion in Europe
– nazi regime new ideology, ubermensch and against jews (immigrants)
– mass psychosis of the people by Hitler and the emperor of Japan
– dictatorship, brown shirts new troops of Hitler maintaining order
– war industrialization, new technology
– step by step taking power until democracy was gone
– propaganda reinvented, fraud, new media
– freedom restrictions, curfew, lockdown, critics imprisoned or killed
– concentration camps, millions of victims
– nations around did not see the danger of change in power
– financial reset, Bretton woods, currency reset
1938 chart see outlook 2021, forecast for 2021 is hidden. See how colored line correlates with current period, known before it happened.
The above chart refers to the Dow from 2018 until 2021, prognosis for the following year is covered. The chart line in black is the actual development of the Dow prices until the end of 2020. The colored line is the price chart of the pattern we expect to match best, which is superimposed on the current price history. The black arrow is the point where we are now, compared to history. As you can see until now prices are compatible (look at directions of markets), with some shifts left or right. The decline begin 2020 is on time as is the recovery. Only the recovery in 2020 stretches.
In our Outlook for 2020, made in December 2019, we foresaw the top of the market and a decline in Dow Jones of minimally 20%-30%, violence and terror spreading, severe recession in economy starting, Brexit happening, and a victory of Trump in the elections, as well as very chaotic period around these elections.
After the collapse and extreme volatility in markets in the 1st quarter of 2020, we expected the SPX to rise from around 2000 to 2900, but did not expect the SPX/Dow to reach new all-time highs. The reversals (red bars) later in 2020 did connect to special events (WTI oil at -$40) and other smaller reversals. Last part of 2020 there were not many reversals, but this will change in 2021. Please note that within a short period of many reversals the markets corrected swiftly and reversed sharply. All if it was based upon the first 2 sections or time patterns in the 2020 outlook.
When the virus hit beginning 2020, we dived into history to find
correlations with the trigger pattern of terror (1st section of the
Time pattern) in history. It revealed that some more patterns like 1918
(Spanish Flu) and 2001 (SARS) included epidemics. Also we recognized that
during or after the trigger pattern alike 2018,
it often happened that presidents of the US were assassinated (Lincoln,
Garfield, McKinley, Kennedy, probably Harding) or attempts. This means it is
still a danger now for a president.
The main result of this research of history, was that including the patterns after 2020 revealed a WAR time pattern. Later on we connected this to many major focal points in history.
All of DeLorean outlook 2020 came true, except, for now, the re-election of Trump and a market correction that still can take place. We do have a constitutional crisis but not yet translated to markets, which is odd.
The elections nor it outcome are certain yet. Although it gets less obvious that Trump will win, there are still some “Trump” cards to play, if you like it or not. Wisely Trading and investing is not about preferences, subjectivity or dislikes, but about information.
DeLorean indicator, which is used for timing the markets, we now – 24th
of December- see already the red zone end of year 2020, potentially a sharp
correction. In addition our indicator is deep RED on January 6th
2021, when senate elections are finished as well as Congress has to convene
about the presidential election.
Are you aware of the fact that 7 states, mostly Republican, have 2 slates of electors, one for Biden and one for Trump? When the indicator is red there is a crisis and the establishment normally doesn’t like it.
So we are giving away our indicator before it happens, January 6, 7 and 20th are Red and the red bars are Reversals. Let’s see what happens. And more to come in January and February. To see all just order DeLorean indicators.
At some point the market, so far protected by media who protect the potentially false Biden election outcome, will recognize that there is still huge uncertainty and a depression around the corner and therefore high risk – correction- in the markets. In addition, we mention there might be a much bigger picture still hiding in the background, a TIME reset which is not great and not to be liked.
Original post at 1st October 2020 https://tradersworld.com/issue78.pdf
Would you like to know the trend of NEXT YEAR
Of course you would!
You need to protect in case a BEAR market is around the corner. You need to know IF and WHEN a bull market will come again.
You can do so at a relatively
very small price. Try it this time!
Not only markets but also society and economy as a whole will be affected.
Time is running and ticking. The long term Time
patterns forecasted a deep recession and war like situation in 2019 as well as
a decline of around 30% before it
happened. It aint over yet! The next leg down will be coming soon. Even worse, a
TIME BOMB is developing. Our time patterns give a sneak preview of what is ment
to happen with regard to the (market) trend and social environment, so prepare.
Now we have entered A WAR time pattern
as has happened several times in the past. Consequently society will experience
the same parallel events again and dark times are ahead.
are in control. Yes they are, but they make it worse in the end. Firstly
because they have no clue what they are doing or how the economy or markets
work. Secondly because all are (indirectly or not) bribed by their ideology or
money and will thus not be able to make proportional judgements using Science
and insight. Thirdly government are concerned with their self interest in the
end and the power they want to keep, so they forget about the people they
All institutions (like FED, ECB, IMF, World bank, WHO), all continents and countries are planning and plotting all the time to increase their influence. We have the Rothschild, Bilderberg, New world order, Soros, Climate activists etc. It could be true ideology, often idealized, but mostly it is about power and money. They all exert influence from time to time, but will never be in full control (of the world). You can name it conspiracy theory or not, but it is all part of the game where power changes hands. From Germany to UK, to USA, to China and so on. From Democrats to Republicans and back. Whatever the outcome of USA presidential election, both will make happen what is meant to be. Sometimes it brings peace and harmony, other times crisis. They all think they are in control, but they are not. There is no control whatsoever.
In view of the TIME
PATTERNS the future is set. These TIME patterns apply globally, it is an ‘energy’
that goes around the world. Whatever conspirators plot, it does not make a
difference but adds to the outcome that is more or less inevitable. The Longer
term Time patterns repeat themselves over time showing highly correlated
patterns and related events. Consequently Society, economy and markets will
show parallel trends in line with previous times when lookalike time patterns occurred.
History repeats itself. As shown in our DeLorean 2020 outlook (published December 2019), recession, violence and epidemic/ infected behavior was imminent. Having studied ages of history, how it unfolds and what time patterns are presented during compatible historic events, has convinced me that humanity as a whole cannot escape their fate. Good times and bad times will come, but individuals can prepare and stay away from the madness of crowds. You could be the exception to the rule to learn from history.
Last article: The question is not IF but WHEN trouble will happen.
Time patterns: What the future has in store for us.
Researching historic time patterns, we found for 1st half of the year 2020 a high correlation with time patterns of the years 1930-1931, predicting a severe recession and crisis. Additionally we expected a market correction of at least 20 but more likely 30% in line with these years.
For a much longer term TIME pattern from 2018, including 2020 and beyond our TIME patterns software found the highest match with 2 historic time patterns. These 2 patterns are both WAR and CRISIS patterns, because of the social disruption that took place.
How do we know the future?
We have a database of historic time patterns back to around 1700. These are correlated with current time patterns to find a match. So, our software came up with several high correlations, see below. Parallel trends, social events and markets will repeat time and time again as more than 10 years of research shows. Social events have their own signature in the pattern waves.
History repeats itself
The first pattern is from 1917 to 192?. So what
did generally happen during this period in the most powerful countries? The
time patterns are applicable globally to the strongest nations and vested
– Many strong regimes completely lost power. Germany in Europe, the Tsar and elite in Russia. The USA took over from the UK as the strongest nation.
– Spanish flu 1918
– Revolution and anarchy was common as well as many (political) assassinations
– Civil war, terrorism, polarization and violence was a global tendency.
– Communism and Marxism was on the rise. Communists took over during the Russian revolution leading to The Soviet Union in 1922. In China Mao started Chinese communist party, but did not take power yet. In Germany Hitler was on the rise as in the Marxist Nazi party. Also in the USA communists tried to take power but did not succeed.
– all these new left wing parties that took power in name of the people ended up to become a dictatorship and fascist regime later on. Tens of millions of lives were wasted.
– censorship and propaganda as always during crisis times or change of power
– economy was in between a recession or depression or even ruined with regard to Germany.
– financial markets were in distress and stock indices suffered heavy losses.
– madness of crowds and of governments. Also order troops everywhere like the nazi Brownshirts.
Another longer term TIME pattern
that has the highest correlation is the period from 1938 to 194?.
Main events were:
– Governments seize full power
– war globally with Germany/ Italy and Japan.
– freedom of the people were restricted. Curfew, lockdown, mandatory army or work enlisting, hiding for the enemy
– government takes over, war economy determined and funded by government as well as way of life of the people, taking away freedom. Mandatory participation in army or factory work.
– Violence, crisis everywhere and locking up people in camps and razzia’s
– government sacrifices the lives of their own people or of the enemy, leading to loss of tens of millions lives.
– financial markets in distress and stock exchanges minus 50% at least.
– economy in severe recession until war economy took over
– censorship and propaganda, opposition eliminated.
– madness of crowds, of governments and order troops
The main question : in what stage are we now looking at these patterns? When will the economy and markets reach their lows? When will better times arrive? Read on to learn more…
What stage are we in this crisis pattern?
TIME patterns show is that we are in the 2nd stage of the long term pattern.
The pattern NOW at work is a hybrid of the 1918-192? and 1939-194? pattern. The first stage of the pattern NOW started in 2018, marking the top of the market, setting of a decline in beginning 2020. Corona epidemic and fear set in as well as a sharp correction of more than 30%. Next the economy turned down as fast as not seen many times before because of government commanding a lockdown. During this sub pattern often terrorism is rising and infections of any kind sprout, creating more fear, crisis or polarization in countries or between countries. For example in 2001 twin towers 9/11 and SARS happened during previous occurrence of these patterns as well as (political, literally or proverbial) assassinations. In 1918 we had the Spanish flu, and probably poisoning of president Wilson, in 1962 and further assassination of Kennedy and Cuba crisis. In 2018 there were several attempts threatening the president.
We already have witnessed many more parallels of terrorism, Antifa, polarization between black and white, looting, burning down cities and so on in the first half of 2020. Not to mention the fight between Democrats and Republicans, where Democrats will desperately use all means to win the US elections. We already are on the verge of a civil war. The lockdown because of a pandemic that is not a pandemic according to its normal definition, is ruining economy and freedom of people, meeting more and more resistance.
Europe is no better place to be. UK and EU are getting nowhere on a trade deal, mainly because the dictatorial EU is not respecting the autonomy of UK after Brexit and not inclined to make any compromise whatsoever. Don’t be surprised if the verbal war changes to a real war, for example over fishing territory. Governments are infected by the “madness of crowds”, locking down the country and taking away the constitutional freedom of people. In addition immigrants are flooding (invited by) the EU as their mercenaries, creating havoc in many countries, which begins to look alike the invasion of the Nazis in Europe long ago.
Order troops that need to protect the citizens, are acting violent against their own and protecting or not acting against immigrants, who are also protected by judges. Demonstrations the EU governments do not like, are stopped. They tried to do so recently in Berlin, but luckily, it the court in Germany ordered not to interfere with the right of demonstration. Contrarily, immigrants, climate and Black lives matter demonstrations are allowed. Just like in the USA, resistance is growing. More and more, governments act in line of EU planning, which is not agreed upon by the people of the EU. Additionally several governments are on the verge of accepting laws that puts parliament aside, which will be the beginning of a dictatorship using Corona as an excuse.
The chart above shows the pattern at work now until beginning 2021, but it continues far beyond. The topping, crash, reversals and recession have all been predicted before it happened. Retrace of around 60% from lows were indicated. Now we have a full retrace from where markets will decline to previous lows! Please note that the indicator under chart predicts social events and direction only when shorter term triggers and indicators confirm. DeLorean indicator SPX will show you these. DeLorean indicator becomes very negative the coming months. YOU NEED TO KNOW UNTIL WHEN THE PATTERNS OF 1918 AND 1938 ARE VALID in order to preview OUR FUTURE.
The red bars are time pattern clusters that point out larger reversals, even very important tops and bottoms, like in 2020.
In 2018 a pattern began – high plateau for around 1 year- that is a lookalike of 2002-2003, causing its first crisis beginning 2019 and decline in 2020
Comparing 2020 and beyond to historic patterns with highest match
– Markets will decline a lot,
starting now, target SPX minimally 2000 to 1800.
– economy declined already 25% on average. This will rise to 50%
– Corona will be used to create dictatorship and new regime in EU.
– if reset/lockdown continued, economy is at risk, wipe out of financial system, already on life support, in Europe possible. In Europe a civil war between immigrants and natives on its way. Opposition of the people against EU
– expect capital flight to US$ and implosion of EUR as a result of which EU could crumble. Reset of financial system as a result.
– Trump will win if protected well
– risk of Biden being replaced
– whatever the US election outcome, neither side will accept losing the elections. The left side already did not accept the previous outcome in 2016. This time the result will be anarchy from activist organizations. People will start to defend themselves which could lead to civil war between black and white as well as democrats (left) and Republicans (conservatives)
– Reset of political order can be expected, either to the extreme left or restoring law and order.
Above you can see how much the Time patterns are alike 2018 and beyond, but 1938 has the best match with correlation of 81 %. 1918 is still comparable but more out of line with regard to markets. Markets and events are expected to follow mainly the 1938 scenario.
Next stages in the Time pattern for our future
The second stage, which we are entering now, marks a period where the government seizes control of society, taking away the freedom of citizens. Fear sets in and madness of crowds and governments is taking over. The above description shows already clearly the parallels between the other periods of crisis and what is happening now. These TIME patterns are a fascinating way of foreseeing the future and being able to prepare.
worst is still to come before the good times arrive again. The third stage is
(civil) war of some kind, suppression, complete lockdown and forcing measures
upon citizens, like vaccination. This has already begun in EU , Hong Kong and
Australia for example, China and Russia have not been a democracy for a long
period of time. There will be a dogfight in the USA between Democrats and
Republicans. Expect violent times to come. Easily this could lead to a civil
war where one side tries to maintain law and order and the other side tries to
disrupt the country. Same happens in Europe, more violence every day. What is
happening worldwide is that left
extremists are trying to gain control which is a coordinated action in the EU
and will be joined by Democrats and left wing extremists in the USA if
possible, helped by the propaganda of Main street media. Abolishing the old
fossils economy in favor of green energy, defunding the police and resetting
the system, economically and politically, at all costs. The problem is what it
will look like when the reset has been finished. If this is not the reason for
a dark future then the financial problems are around the corner, less for the
USA but especially for Europe. Low
interests rates have destroyed bond markets as well as pension funds. The
system could completely collapse when confidence in the EURO has disappeared.
Once the currency is not trusted anymore, this is the reason for hyperinflation
Over time we will notice the parallels and being negative but realistic, let us still hope for increased cooperation in countries internally as well as between countries. If order, law, democracy and freedom is maintained the future looks less bleak. The 4th stage will normally show resistance and freedom as a result, which will spur economic growth again.
Time patterns forecast also better times later on so society as we know it, will prevail in the end. A positive pattern for growth and confidence shows up in the future, not yet the strongest but it is a good beginning. If you like to know when our indicators, Long term as well as short term are turning up again, then you need to buy our DeLorean preview 2021. Additionally for exact timing you need our DeLorean indicator.
This indicator shows day to day the trend of the markets. Not knowing the news, we do know the energy, positive or negative that will be at work during a certain day or period. If this energy is positive markets normally go up if negative down. Also a negative indicator will bring news that will shake the vested interests or give some negative surprise news. Using the indicator this way, we forecast, just like in 2016, that Trump will be winning the presidency or there will be some other shock event related to it. Biden replaced or Trump replaced as candidate for example.
Because the indicator will be mainly in the red for a longer period, we expect disorder and anarchy in line with our long term time patterns. Below you will find the indicator for the USA election period together with an explanation what it predicts.
This indicator we also use to predict the DeLorean OPEN with excellent performance as shown on the next page. Last year was more difficult but still really good results and relative low drawdown.
DeLorean indicator shows calculation of indicator for the period around USA presidential elections on November 3, 2020. Clearly the day after elections the reading is weak and gets very negative the 5th and 6th of November. The next 2 weeks it stays negative apart from a recovery 9-10 November.
Just like 2016, when we predicted a victory of Trump, we again see red indicator after elections. Red is negative, so a bummer for vested interests, Main street media and an outcome that will not be accepted nor cheered. Some say Biden could still win, however that is only theoretically. Like in 2016 the polls say he will win, well the polls are heavily biased and do not include the silent majority. Actually the reading of the outcome is so negative that anarchy is possible or a last minute event with regard to Biden or Trump.
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Original post at 1st July 2020 https://tradersworld.com/issue77.pdf
Would you like to know the trend of NEXT YEAR in
Of course you would! This is exactly the sort of holy grail investors have been looking for and it seems only GANN succeeded. DeLorean indicator shows if the next day or month or year is positive, negative or neutral in direction. Really fascinating to calculate the energy for the future using our physics model. The longer term time patterns have been calculated since 2013 and never change. Read on if you like to know what the 2nd half of 2020 will bring.
In the previous issue of Tradersworld, we had
the following important news.
The major indices just witnessed their all-time highs, so no major top yet to
be expected. Except for the forecast we already made in December 2019!
Quote from last Tradersworld:
“ This year will probably remembered as a year of cross points in future history books. The end of last year we have buried a time capsule, predicting global economy and markets longer term, which has been opened for our customers and will be dug up next year. What does it say? To give a peek behind the curtain, there is a point in time where crisis is just around the corner. So, time to wake up or even better, don’t sleep. There is some bad news culminating and markets do not yet have discounted this (as of February 20, 2020) Recession, crisis, rising interest rates, capital flight and probably Europe in trouble. We have already seen a pandemic developing as well as Brexit, that could lead to more hostility. Even more, other countries could follow the example set by the UK and no longer accept the tyranny of Brussels, dictated by France and Germany. France will have elections in March, which could be the beginning of the downfall of president Macron. Also the end of time for Merkel of Germany is near. Even more important, US presidential elections are coming. The question is not IF but WHEN trouble will happen. That is why we developed our time model.”
As a result of our forecast, investors / traders sold in time avoiding deep losses and risk.
DeLorean Long Term forecast
Every year, before the year starts we make a forecast of the major trends of that year. As we did in December 2019 for the year 2020. Most important prediction for readers is the BEAR MARKET. Already in the first half year of 2020 many forecasts became reality. “Trouble pops up like an infection”, it happened literally.
– severe recession
– correction minimally from minus 20 to 30 % to begin with
– global crisis , (trade) war, terrorism and alike. Global means trouble that travels around the world like an epidemy. As we see now not only Corona hit the world but also recession, protests and violence.
Below you see an excerpt of what we have written :
Europe is in crisis and in danger of falling apart, for which reason they try to expand budgets dramatically so member states can no longer quit the union easily. After the departure of UK, negotiations going nowhere with EU. In fact signs are that EU is losing control. What will happen there in the next half year? Will it calm down or not?
With regard to the USA
we have witnessed widening of the rift in the country between democrats and
republicans as well as black and white. Additionally, violence is increasing or
even anarchistic tendencies rising. What will happen if the madness of crowds
will hit the streets in full force? Is it foreplay now for something worse or will
it calm down in the 2nd half year?
Very important to know and to be prepared. Will there be a quick V shaped recovery like some forecast or does it take much longer? Is there anything positive to forecast for the next year in view of the hit our economy has taken as a result of Corona and subsequent lockdown?
We will give you a sneak peek. It is never the end of the world, but when the stock markets decline again, it will feel like it. Recovery of the SPX from the low in march and other stock markets is about to be complete now (as of June 15th 2020). So markets will have another leg down. Interested to know when and how to avoid stocks, take a look at our 2020 forecast. Don’t wait too long, it can start to decline anytime. Additionally it would be interesting to know if the year 2021 will deepen a bear market or start a new bull market.
Please take a look at our analysis back in 2017. At the very end of the picture, in the year 2019, you see the green indicator declining dramatically. So actually, without anybody spotting it, we already forecasted the beginning of 2020 some 3 years ago, see screenshot. As explained many times before, this is a quantitative approach using mathematics and physics. Think of it as a sort of quantum mechanics that we have modelled to calculate all changes in energy force for the past and future. If the indicator is positive (above zero) the mood is positive or euphoric and vice versa, below zero the mood is negative or even panic.
Indicators have been developed for different time frames, for portfolio managers, position traders and day traders. In the long term indicator, as displayed in the above screenshot, the patterns in the green indicator unveil the future if you know what to look for. It is the pattern, how it looks (pattern matching quantitatively) and the time waves it includes. Looking for a bull market? Search where green line is climbing and makes 2 tops. Bear market or minor corrections? Where the green line declines (strongly) and stays low for a while.
Our yearly forecast is very important to portfolio managers, since they will show you high probability outcome for the larger trends. Not only for markets but also for society and economy as a whole. Therefore the recent economic trends will be developing in general where the larger vested interests are affected. The same goes for crisis and social disruption that spreads like an infection. Also the mindset of politicians in general will be more or less in line and all of them will be a member of the herd. Corona, not coming close to become a dramatic world extinction event by far. Nevertheless it caused a panic, with unmatched lockdown measures and damage to economy because of fear and being part of the herd. Exactly as we experience in every day markets.
Previous years forecasts
For a selective group of customers we made available forecast in previous years, We will show you in one chart the main outcome. As said one chart tells more than 1000 words. This is exactly what you are buying newsletters for to know in advance the big picture of the markets.
You can imagine with a little experience that to know the future is priceless information. The main contribution to the (out)performance of your investments is the asset allocation. Were you invested when the bull market took off? Even more important in my view is to avoid bear markets. All forecasts have been fulfilled in the last years. Now that the beginning of 2020 also was a spot on forecast too, there is still a very important 2nd half around the corner.
BE PEPARED- for a relative small price.
You see several indicators displayed which are fractal in itself as well as together. We have a larger DeLorean trends indicator and a smaller trends. Applying a top down approach the green indicator gives the general trend. The smaller trends indicator can override the larger when really strong, like Apr-May and July-Sept, during the time the green line was declining. No large correction happened.
On the other hand, when the DeLorean smaller trends indicator confirms the green line indicator, corrections become more sever and/or take more time.
So, before it happens, in the empty chart the periods of down and up markets are indicated. Use a Moving Average to get confirmation.
The red bars are time pattern clusters that point out larger reversals, even very important tops and bottoms, like in 2020.
In 2018 a pattern began – high plateau for around 1 year- that is a lookalike of 2002-2003, causing its first crisis beginning 2019 just like 2001. There are many more of these examples in 100 years Dow which caused epidemics and global crisis
This same pattern ended its last wave in beginning 2020, causing a major bear market. In the first screenshot above- TW article 2017- we already showed the indicator and it has never changed. So we knew already.
As said we knew for a long time that the green line indicator would start declining quickly beginning 2020. Therefore we alerted our contacts of the danger ahead within a time band of 1- 3 months and getting them prepared to sell IN TIME.
Now it really begins again. It is very important for your performance (and peace of mind) to know what is coming from the strong recovery the markets have shown since March. In view of volatility, markets will experience strong moves. Also the US president elections are coming. Because the short term indicator is red after election day, the mainstream media will not be pleased with the outcome.
Mathematically and statistically matching
The patterns at work in 2020 (and beyond!) have been (re)searched using our proprietary software and matched with several very hectic periods in our history from 1900. For example there was a very high correlation with the time patterns in 1930-1931 for which reason we forecasted a severe recession. Even better, or worse, longer term the pattern matches very good with another period! This pattern has been shown in yellow in the chart above and will be unlocked for customers DeLorean Long term. As you can see its history until now has a very high correlation with current markets. First a strong bull market, next a crash and strong recovery, where we are now. We expect the price pattern in our future to continue to look like the pattern in the past, which is valuable information.
Every Investor and trader can buy or sell a market for a longer ride using our longer term analysis. Contrary to day trading and timing it is more simple and less hectic. Short term trends are available as well, even for every day, just try it…
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29th February 2020 original post at
Would you like to know the trend of each trading day in advance?.
DeLorean indicator shows if the next day or month is positive, negative or neutral. Really fascinating to calculate the energy for tomorrow using our physics model. We have been doing this since March 2017 with an uncanny result and only a handful of losing months.
No linear model will explain a complex world, so we need to connect the dots using mathematics.
Don’t be late, you
will never catch up time lost. This year will probably remembered as a year of
crosspoints in future history books.
The end of last year we have buried a time capsule, predicting global economy and markets longer term, which has been opened for our customers and will be dug up next year. What does it say?
To give a peek behind the curtain, there is a point in time where crisis is just around the corner. So, time to wake up or even better, don’t sleep. There is some bad news culminating and markets do not yet have discounted this.
Recession, crisis, rising interest rates, capital flight and probably Europe in trouble. We have already seen a pandemic developing as well as Brexit, that could lead to more hostility. Even more, other countries could follow the example set by the UK and no longer accept the tyranny of Brussels, dictated by France and Germany. France will have elections in March, which could be the beginning of the downfall of president Macron. Also the end of time for Merkel of Germany is near. Even more important, US presidential elections are coming.The question is not IF but WHEN trouble will happen. That is why we developed our time model. Nothing subjective, not assessing all sorts of opinions, but merely inspecting what our mathematical and physics model, called DeLorean, has calculated for the future (and past).
Below we will list how we can put DeLorean for use and what it can do and what not.
DeLorean travels to the past and future to calculate the energy at some point in time. If it is positive, negative or neutral will have effect worldwide. When positive, mainstream mood and view will be positive as an average. Therefore it will create harmony, cooperation, economic growth and more practically (stock) markets will rise. There will be more buyers than sellers, every news is positive in a on average positive mindset. However, as usually happens it will not last, nor in big trends (or time patterns) nor in smaller trends. Trends do picture the cyclical nature of time patterns, which is an inherent part of nature. These patterns are cyclical, yes, but because of intricate complexity of the world around us, these patterns are not fixed, linear or simple variables.
It is complex and dynamic, therefore you have to think in fractals and connect the dots in the point cloud using mathematics only and a concept that is baffling simple (and very complex to build). This said we can use DeLorean to travel to a known future event and see how markets will respond. DeLorean forecasts a DIRECTION in markets, not the price level in the future.
It would be nice to know also the exact price beforehand of tomorrow, but do you still need to?
1) BACK to the Future: Prediction of elections (and other events). Mail for advice on any date…
Presidential election in the USA on November 3rd, is mainly RED in our indicator, markets will be very volatile, show sharp decline and in between recovery as well. Just like 2016, it is not good for vested interests and contrary to general media opinion. See previous article.
Another example happens in March 2020, French elections are on the 15th and 22nd of March. Surprisingly our indicator is GREEN the day after both the first and second round. Macron is very much under pressure from the “yellow vests”, the people of France who are really discontent and have been protesting for more then a year. It could well be that the more extreme party of Marine Le Pen gains in this election. But probably not enough to take power, which would be predicted by RED and bad news for the EU. (But not for the people.) Anyhow markets will rise according to the indicator, which is GREEN (above zero and rising).
Chart of the period of French elections in March
2) to see if the economy will grow or enter a recession. https://aquilaesignal.com/product/delorean-1-year-preview/
special offer $950 instead of $1500.
This is really an important analysis for investors to know what will happen in the next year or so in order to be prepared. For many years FED and ECB have (been able to?) avoided an recession. Will they succeed again and how long will it last? Also, what will happen in 2020 and if recession strikes, will it become a depression like the 30’s or will it recover the year thereafter? For the longer term, there are larger time patterns at work, that will give a clear picture of what to expect. Timing when a rise or decline will occur, is done with shorter term patterns. Like in 2008 -when financial meltdown hit the markets- these shorter term patterns in our DeLorean indicator were bloody RED. This way it can be used for asset allocation in professional portfolio’s to wake up and get out of the markets in time.
Will it look like this? Recession…Bear Or like this? Growth…Bull
predict shorter term trends using the DeLorean indicator for position trading. https://aquilaesignal.com/product/delorean-monthly-3-months/
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In general, every 1 to 3 days the indicator might shift from positive to negative or vice versa. Sometimes the indicator shows months of a prolonged rise or decline, which jusitfies to keep positions longer or to apply active asset allocation. So the 16/17th of March European (and US) markets will rise, as well as the 23rd. The indicator shows rather exact when acceleration starts.
4) Day to day trading https://aquilaesignal.com/product/delorean-open/
Using our DeLorean OPEN we will forecast every trading day for the whole future month in one go, all days before it happens. You could use yourself the indicator to start daytrading or following one of our trading systems.
5) Since the mood of the herd dictates all
markets in general,
DeLorean time patterns and indicator as a result can be applied to mainstream markets who are the culmination of mass perception. Therefore we use it for (stock) indices mainly, like SPX, DAX, HSI and now also currencies which is EURUSD.
Analysis of the US Dollar-EURUSD https://aquilaesignal.com/product/time-to-trade-usd-3-month/
Below we show a graph of the EURUSD en the DeLoreanEURUSD indicator that predicts the price of EUR (against $).The swings in the indicator (BLACK line tops&bottoms!)are depicted as RED for Shorts (swing from top to bottom) and green for Longs (swing from bottom to top). Instantly you can see how well RED in the chart coincides with a decline and GREEN with a rise. The BLACK line in the indicator is the summation of positive and negative energy and travels above and below zero. Besides the time of changing direction of the black line, also the time of traveling below or above zero is important. You see at least 3 trends in the indicator below, main trend-larger time frame and bigger trends Up or Down, the trend of the swing and the smaller trends in the Black line of indicator.
As you can see not only the larger down trend (and up trend before) is clear, but also the declines as well as retraces up in the down trend. By following the smaller down trends when the TIME has come and the price declines below a 15 minute EMA, you have your entry trade.
Naturally, like all our predictions, the indicator has been calculated for the future already. Below you see what the indicator predicts for the near future. A recovery of the EUR is imminent within days. (as of now = Feb 20)
So looking at the chart above you see in red
sections that the EUR declines and and retraces up in green sections.
Ofcourse we expect to happen the same in the future. Therefore we expect the EUR to rise until the end of February, retrace and rise again until half of March (in line with French elections?).
Please check our website for ordering new release of EURUSD subscription at a special price. Only EUR 95,- per month.
Day trading systems SPX using futures https://aquilaesignal.com/product/time-to-trade-trading-system-spx-3-months/
In previous articles we have shown how to use the indicator on Option trading in the SPX wtih an excellent performance. However for future day trading we need to trade shorter term and more precise short term swings of our indicator.
For the period January till now the trading system, as we defined it, brought (trading 2 futures) a profit of $ 16.000,- versus 3% drawdown, using an amount of $ 100.000,-. We will make sure that low probability area’s in the indicator are neutral, which is a necessary upgrade for future trading. We have simply (because of high probability of green and red zones) defined entry on break of EMA 15 minutes, a hard stop of 0,25% and profit protection, where profit is protected when reaching 0,2% and incremental protection with higher percentage profit. If you order our future trading system, you will receive a chart with trading areas green and red for the next month with a list of exact TIME (according to your time zone) of changing trend. See our order page. ALL SPECIAL OFFER only for TRADERSWORLD
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30th October 2019 original post at
Would you like to know the trend of each trading day in advance?
DeLorean indicator shows if the next day is positive, negative or unclear. Really fascinating to calculate the energy for tomorrow using our physics model. We have been doing this since March 2017 with an uncanny result and only a handful of losing months. (see overview)
Nothing is random, everything is connected and all is fractal, price patterns as well as time patterns. Surprisingly time patterns could be calculated exactly while price patterns- such as Elliott Wave- are no exact science before the fact. Time patterns/cycles is not a sort of statistical approach like projecting the price moves of the past into the future, calibrating it and fitting all sorts of static cycles. This approach will not work unless by coincedence. The future will be different from the past.
The first application of our invention was the most difficult one, to forecast the open of the indices for the days or month to come. This has to be very precise, since we take position the evening before and close at a predetermined time the next day. When the model predicts an uptrend (positive energy) at the opening, we enter the market at the close the day before taking a long position in futures or options. On prediction of a downtrend we enter a short position. Next day at the opening we close the position at a predetermined time, so there is no leeway that a wrong prediction could still somehow become profitable by sitting it out.
Later on we started using initial stops and trailing stops to optimize results, when the (positive or negative) energy became stronger during the day.
Let’s put this into practice and give you the predictions for SPX, which we sent to our customers by mail on 30th of September for all the month of October 2019.
Attached to this mail our users find predictions for every trading day. No prediction in the sheet means neutral or unclear.
The attachment can be seen on the next page where we now have filled out the results of the prediction, a whopping 148 points profit using one future ES.
The SPX traders are very content with good results of SPX DeLorean, particularly the last month. Now we are using a trailing stop of 8 when price change has already been explosive, otherwise of 10. Additionally there is an intial stop of 10 points.
Firstly we will explain the sheet. Most important is (look at the header of each column) the trend date and TREND, which is the date we are predicting and what to trade for. So the 1st of October the forecasted TREND was UP. Therefore we enter the day before at the close 21:59, see entry date. Consequently we BUY (ENTRY TRADE) the ES future (SPX) on 30th of September and SELL on the 1st of October at 15:00 to cash in or take a loss. When trend continues in forecasted direction we use a trailing stop, which can add considerable extra gain, but also results will be a bit different for each trader.
Clearly if the trend date of 28th of October is UP, traders will have to enter their trade on Friday the 25th at the close and take position overweekend. The 28th our model showed a very strong positive energy, which in fact should mean that during the weekend and on the 28th there will be most likely positive news that will make prices rise.
One more explanation on CANCEL you will notice. This is the only signal that has been changed the day before the trend day and communicated with our traders. Also the time in yellow is a deviation from the default times, so entry or exit times are more specific.
All in all the above approach has resulted in the following track record.
Please contact us if you have questions.
Back to the future
Brexit and election UK December 12th 2019
Finally we have a date for the expected election in the UK to break the deadlock in parliament. December 12th it will be decided how the political landscape will change.
Before the election at the 6th of December on friday markets are expected to decline when reversing from a positive indicator to a strong negative reading. The day after the election, the 13th looks like positive for the markets but most probably this will turn negative. There is a pattern that in its specific form at that time has a history of negative markets in spite of the fact that the indicator is positive the 13th. We have researched our long term database to see what statistically happened. If it is very negative, then the election outcome could even make a no deal brexit possible again, which would shake the markets, in spite of the fact that it could be beneficial to the UK in the long term, but not for Europe.
Presidential election USA on November 3rd 2020
Traveling to the future our model calculated the following picture.
Clearly this is a very negative outcome especially after the election. Unlikely that a victory of Trump will be regarded as positive news, so the deep red indicator shows his re-election in a very hectic sort of crisis situation.
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By Rick Versteeg
Would you like to know bull or bear markets
before they happen?.
Look at the examples below how DeLorean indicator tells if it is positive or negative in this exact time or period. How fascinating is it that we can travel in time and calculate the indicator for events way back in the past, like the French or American revolution, to see what it would have forecasted. The same as we do for future events…
History will repeat itself. History is time. There is a hidden order in all events that we witness, small or big. Everything is connected triggering the next events. Nowadays this has been accepted as the mainstream view. Einstein said “God does not play dice with the universe”. Nothing is random.
So History is the key to understanding the world and how the clock ticks. When long ago the flash idea occurred how, what and why our time cycle clock might be able to tick correctly, we still needed proof. We expected, of course, that it would work fine, but in general.
Indeed it works, to our surprise even much better than we could imagine with an uncanny detail.
Thanks to available history we were able to test extensively the working of our time cycles, fractal time patterns that are connected. While testing a lot more specific information and combinations it became clear that our energy model and the dynamic rhythm could be calculated more precise by connecting it to important historic events. If the time cycles and its patterns do forecast the future, they should connect to important events in the past. So this has been the first step, while checking the short term forecast of market prices at the same time in real time. Another approach is to use past events as an inception point for the future, this could for example be the origin of a country like declaration of independence of the USA 1776. Alternatively one can use big price movements, like bull markets and bear markets (beginning or end) as inception point of a cycle. This as the next research project, which is a continuing story.
South Sea company In Great Britain, a considerable number of people were ruined by the share collapse, and the national economy greatly reduced as a result. The founders of the scheme engaged in insider trading, using their advance knowledge of when national debt was to be consolidated to make large profits from purchasing debt in advance. Huge bribes were given to politicians to support the Acts of Parliament necessary for the scheme. Company money was used to deal in its own shares, and selected individuals purchasing shares were given loans backed by those same shares to spend on purchasing more shares. The expectation of profits from trade with South America was used to encourage the public to purchase shares, but the bubble prices reached far beyond the profits of the slave trade
The point is that in energy, how it travels and by what extent it increases or decreases, everything is connected. Our premise was that this energy will influence the subconscious of humans to take action, change direction or influence any other decision. Humans believe making a choice to control their world independently and rationally, but in our opinion it is just a reaction to the energy they are exposed to. Negative energy will make them worry and panicking, positive energy leads to wishful thinking. Consequently the masses will become negative or positive and thereby create bear or bull markets. Still, not all individuals are influenced to the same extent nor will follow the herd all the way. Since the majority (80%) is the herd, financial markets will follow the accumulated decisions of individuals of the herd which will cause the market indices to rise or decline. We focus on indices because participation of investors in individual stocks will not as well reflect the view of the masses.
To inspect behavior of
the masses we need to analyze International events and bubbles, that have a
more or less world wide impact. One should bear in mind that our time cycles
are in line not only with market behavior but also with economic and social developments
in society. The shorter term time cycles in the Delorean indicator though are
most reflected in short term market fluctuations.
South sea bubble
A very well documented bubble is the South Sea Bubble, which took place in the Great Britain at the same time as the Mississippi Bubble in the USA and more or less the same speculation in France. Within a very short period of 1 year the South Sea company shares had a meteoric rise from 100 to almost 1000, to decline again to where it began and ending in bankruptcy.
|In Great Britain, a considerable number of people were ruined by the share collapse, and |
the national economy greatly reduced as a result. The founders of the scheme engaged in
insider trading using their advance knowledge of when national debt was to be
consolidated to make large profits from purchasing debt in advance. Huge bribes were
given to politicians necessary for the scheme Company money was used to deal in its own
shares, and selected individuals purchasing shares were given loans backed by those same
shares to spend on purchasing more shares. The expectation of profits from trade with
South America was used to encourage the public to purchase shares, but the bubble prices
reached far beyond the profits of the slave trade
Until end of July the long term cycles and time patterns showed strength, mainly green and above zero. However from then on the DeLorean indicator strongly declined and stayed below zero for a longer period, indicating the end of the bull market run or bubble in this case. Additionally there was a exceptional clustering of time cycles as we often see when markets are likely to crash.
As explained in other articles, the DeLorean indicator is known for the nearby future. Consequently if you see in the future a significant decline of the indicator, remains below zero for a longer period, then it is time to sell. So the savvy investor in 1720 with the indicator at hand would have recognized the danger for the next month and sold his stock in time.
Bear market 1929 and depression
This well known bear market took exceptionally long time to end. In the picture below you can see why : during a period of more then 5 years the DeLorean indicator of long term cycles showed a below zero reading and was very weak.
As usual the beginning
of the crash was triggered by an extreme cluster of shorter term cycles and
time patterns that triggered the decline.
The future of DeLorean indicator
The following chart displays the indicator for the future. I will give you the long term which shows that the 2nd half of 2020 is negative, see lower indicator “…PLA”. The indicator is far below zero and apart from smaller recoveries it stays there till beginning 2021. You would like to know what happens before? Mail us .
The indicator right below the chart shows the shorter term fluctuations, trends for days or sometimes weeks. I give you end 2019 and the beginning of 2020, which is UP, as always with retracements of course. The more both indicators confirm each other the higher the probability but on its own its already strong. However the more you know the better your probabilities. So just get in touch for more information and see our website to order. Thanks for your interest.
This article will show also our long term Time patterns model, suited for longer term investors. A very interesting pattern is at work.
Furthermore we will evaluate our shorter term models and indicators, show results of our option time model on real historic CBOE option data and introduce a newly found acceleration pattern for traders.
DeLorean Opening prediction
Again an excellent result on all markets. DAX January + 151, February + 109 and March +182 points. SPX January + 63, February + 33, March + 26 points. The recovery and high volatility in January explains the extra points gained.
Back to the future- based on DeLorean indicator monthly
Predictions in last article (Time’s up) made the following predictions. Take a seat in DeLorean and we will travel to the future and back. Every day and week there will be trends up and down, small and large. Look at indicator going up or down at the predicted date.
Long term Time patterns-Another correction
Actually this analysis is a must for longer term investors to have some idea of what the future will bring. Back in 2014 we have already wrote an article about some of characteristics. Meanwhile we have developed a pattern recognition that finds matching patterns in the past and future. Next step is to compare trends and performance for this pattern as found in the past. Right now a very specific long term pattern has been forecasted from our time cycles, see the top indicator represented as a green line. Using this approach we can look into the future when a time pattern will be there and how it looks. Since history repeats itself, patterns do as well and thereby give a good approximation of what markets will do in the future if the time pattern has the same effect on markets.
The pattern displayed here from half of 2018 till beginning of 2020 highly resembles the pattern at work in from 2001 till 2003, which is why it got our attention. Back then it was part of a bear market, including the 9/11 terrorist event, resulting in a decline overall of around 30%.
The performance of the best matching patterns are displayed in the chart below. When performance is alike markets could witness another strong correction in 2019. Since this is a long term pattern, it needs a larger time band width of around 3 months.
Typically during the 1st green wave up, also in 2001-3, the correction starts with a sharp decline, when the indicator at the bottom of the chart (black line) below starts to decline from its maximum above 2. The red line indicator is a volatility indicator, above 1 and rising means high volatility.
When the green indicator is in the middle of its high above 1, historic performance shows that normally a decline will happen, therefore pointing to the period June- September. History also shows that if the indicator on the bottom has a reading above 2, making several tops, that the occurrence of a larger bear market is more likely, pointing to a level in the Dow of around 21000-22000 points.
Historic performance with same pattern displayed in chart above. Time pattern circled in RED, that coincides with corrections. Green line is Pattern and direction, red line is volatility when rising and nearing 1, black line is strong correction when above 2. The colored lines in the chart itself are historic perfomances when sam pattern active.
UPDATE Trading system using options.
A mentioned in our previous article , we have developed a directional tradings system for options using DeLorean Monthly. This means that we follow the direction of the indicator to trade long or short using options. Additionally mention that we use SPX options because of liquidity, diversification, pricing and expiration every 2 days. Short term options are most advantageous.
Now we have extended our research and simulated the results of our trading strategy using DeLorean indicator with historic real time 15 minute option prices of CBOE. Our software automatically selects out of the money options for writing calls or puts at a 0.5% (this can be changed to any %) out of the money excercise price compared to spx at the moment of trading. Stop level is at 0.9%, reducing this to 0.6% still gives around 80% hitratio.
Consequently there is always a leaway of 1 % for the position in case the market does not follow the DeLorean indicator immediately.
Trading is based upon the swings in the indicator from top to bottom and vice versa. So a short trade (red arrow)-writing calls- will appear when the indicator starts to decline. A long trade (green arrow)-writing puts- when indicator rises again from a bottom. The strike price is 1% above the SPX price when writing calls and 1% below the market price when writing puts. This way a trade will still have full profit as long as it stays within this bandwidth. If not the trade is stopped out.
With a capital of 150k 3 years trading options resulted in a profit of 144k, almost 100% with a max drawdown of ca. 5,5%.
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Last quarter of 2018 crisis was predicted in advance using the DeLorean indicator. A larger correction was overdue for a long time and time was running out. So inevitably at some point there would be a breaking point where our indicators turn RED. Finally we have witnessed again extreme turbulence in the stock markets which has upset the financial world. Investors and traders were not accustomed anymore to wild markets, not counting the February 2018 flash crash, nor a bear market. A decline in the SPX index (as well as many other indices) of 20% was indicated by the time patterns and triggers of DeLorean, before it happened.Continue reading “Time’s Up”
History repeats itself time and time again makes it possible to discover hidden order in the apparent chaos in financial markets. So what happened once upon a time will happen again when intertwined time cycles indicate the same energy to cause panics or bull markets. People respond to energy whatever the source is.
History repeats itself
The research we have complete in the last decennium was only possible because nowadays we have available a vast amount of price data as well as the fact that computers are fast enough to process this data using complex algorithms. In addition, programming software has evolved to such a good quality that programming complex models and its maintenance is possible today. Also science and mathematics have made big steps in understanding and modeling complex interrelationships using big data.